What The Experts Are Saying About the Gold Price

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Friday, July 15th, 2011

With the spot gold price now having broken out into new high ground, having touched $1594 per ounce earlier this week, here is a round up of what the experts are saying.  However, a couple of points:  first the gold price is still some way off its equivalent high of the 1980′s.  In other words, allowing for inflation it should be registering about $2,400 per ounce & second the prime driver for gold is not the fear of inflation which will, no doubt, come later, but the utter chaos that has been created by the greed and incompetence of the banks and politicians as they try to control the after effects of the financial crisis.

 

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Commodities trading – March corn futures

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Friday, December 3rd, 2010
commodity trading corn futures

Corn Futures - March contract

March corn futures continued to rally once again today, ending the week with a wide spread up candle which closed at 574 per bushel and injecting some much needed momentum into the market, which had struggled to break above the 560 per bushel level in the last two weeks. As such today’s trading session has given us a clear signal that bullish sentiment continues to remain firm, with tonight’s closing price also holding above the 40 day moving average in the 570.4 price handle. In addition, the 9 day moving average is now crossing back above the 14 day moving average once again, giving us a bull cross signal and further evidence that we can expect to see higher prices for the commodity next week. Longer term, the outlook for corn remains firmly bullish and we can expect to see a retest of the 610 price region in due course, which will then provide a strong technical platform for a sustained move higher.

From a fundamental perspective, the rally in corn futures was fuelled by the spillover from wheat futures, coupled with weakness in the US dollar following the shock non farm payroll data, and continuing dry conditions in Argentina. The sharp gains in wheat gave the commodity market an initial boost which was then helped further by a slump in the US dollar, with the weather in Argentina adding to the bullish picture as this is now threatening the countries crop and production potential in the next few months.

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Commodity trading -January soybean futures

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Tuesday, November 16th, 2010
january soybean futures

Soybean futures - daily chart 16th November 2010

January soybean futures bounced back strongly in yesterday’s commodity trading session, following Friday’s sell off in the commodities sector, which saw the contract fall from a high of 1342 to close at 1272, just above the 14 day moving average. The sell off was triggered by concerns over a second interest rate rise in China in an effort to keep inflation under control and prevent the economy from overheating. In the event, the People’s Bank of China decided not to increase the base rate again, which was greeted positively by the markets with the January soybean futures contract closing at 1286.5 per bushel, up 17.5 cents per bushel on the day, and just failing to hold above the 9 day moving average which currently sits at 1293.20. With China being one of the largest markets for soybean, this commodity is particularly sensitive to any positive or negative news, and whilst other commodities also suffered on Friday, soybean in particular reacted badly to the rumours, which coupled with recent US dollar strength have continued to pressure the grains complex.

From a technical perspective the key is now for the commodity to break and hold above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, which should in turn lead to a move back above the psychological 1300 per bushel region and from there to test the high of last week at 1340 and beyond. The longer term outlook remains firmly bullish as evidenced by all three moving averages which continue to point sharply higher, and provided the short term averages remain supportive, the longer term outlook continues to look positive for the commodity.

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Commodities trading – December wheat futures

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Tuesday, November 16th, 2010
wheat futures daily chart

December wheat futures - 16th November 2010

December wheat futures continue to trade in a narrow range, consolidating between 750 per bushel to the upside and 650 per bushel to the downside, where we have seen prices remain for the last few months, with no clear signal as to whether we can expect a bullish or bearish breakout. Yesterday’s trading session gave us little in the way of any further clues, ending the day marginally lower following Friday’s sharp sell on market jitters over rising inflation in China.

Corn futures recovered well during the day, but there was virtually no spillover effect into the wheat market which remained waterlogged and negative throughout the day, a sentiment which appears to be continuing in early trading this morning. This is despite the ongoing concerns over the US winter wheat crop with dry weather across the Plains slowing early growth in the crop.

From a technical perspective the levels outlined above remain key for any longer term trend, and until we see a break and hold above or below these levels, then wheat futures are a market to avoid at present.

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Commodities trading – December corn futures

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Tuesday, November 16th, 2010
corn futures daily chart

December corn futures - 16th November 2010

December corn futures closed sharply higher yesterday, recovering much of the lost ground of Friday, which was triggered by fears that inflation in the Chinese economy would lead to a rise in interest rates and a consequent decrease in demand for commodities in general and soft commodities such as corn, wheat and soybean. Over the weekend the markets waited nervously for any signals, but the People’s Bank of China decided to keep rates on hold, calming nervous markets on Monday, with corn futures reacting positively and climbing higher to close at 555.5 per bushel, up 21.5 cents on the day.

The feature of yesterday’s trading session was twofold – firstly the hold above the 40 day moving average which was significant, and secondly the apparent barrier presented by the 9 and 14 day moving averages above, which capped further gains during the commodity trading session. Whilst the longer term outlook for corn remains firmly bullish, we now need to see the contract break and hold above the short term moving averages in the 567 per bushel region, and provided this occurs in due course, then we are likely to see the longer term momentum re-established once again, with a move past the 600 per bushel level in due course.

From a fundamental perspective, the recovery in the US dollar is helping to pressure commodities in general with export prices increasing slowly as a result. However in yesterday’s trading session this effect was offset by continued talks between China and Argentina over possible corn exports which helped to keep corn futures higher for much of the day. In the futures markets fund buyers bought an estimated 18,100 contracts of December corn

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